A speedy settlement of the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine and ensuring sustainable development in the region are essential prerequisites to the successful movement of Ukraine towards European integration.  At the same time, a return to normal civilian life is possible only in case of a successful completion of the anti-terrorist operation, the cessation of active hostilities and the elimination of preconditions for the ongoing underground resistance, in which the neighboring country is and, obviously, will continue to play a destructive role. In addition, there are a number of complex issues in the region; and the success or failure in providing solutions to them will be determined by the options of development after the completion of the armed phase of the conflict.

By early July the security situation in the regions of eastern Ukraine is and probably will remain for some time fragmented, uneven with some latent centers of armed resistance and sabotage actions. Despite the fact that support to the separatists from the region's population is significantly decreasing, the use of military force causes dissatisfaction of a certain part of the population, especially the pro-Russian citizens. On this basis, separate social groups who are carriers of the cultural way of war and focus on the final resolution of the conflict through armed struggle are  formed.

Therefore, stabilization of the situation and settlement of conflict in the East will require hard work to form such values and normative perceptions of the population, that will make the intentions and practical measures of the current government legitimate and necessary in the minds of the vast majority of people. In particular, this applies to the use of military force against terrorists, establishment of constitutional order by law enforcement agencies, as well as humanitarian and restoration measures implemented by local authorities loyal to Kyiv.

Завантажити

Analytical report_East_Ukraine_22.07.2014.pdf