The challenges of cooperation decline between Ukraine and Russia

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The reshaping of economic cooperation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, based on the experience of the Baltic States and Georgia, will be a complicated and painful process that can drag on for many years. Under the most optimistic scenario adaptation to new conditions of cooperation in the economic sphere can take from two to five years — on condition of absence of armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine, support from society and the presence of very favorable internal and external political factors. In case of a scenario of internal political disintegration — the painful adaptation may take five years or more. It is possible that such a scenario is intended by the Russian Federation on condition of cessation of open military confrontation in Donbass.

Writing team - Andrew Yermolaev, Irina Klimenko, Svetlana Taran, Vadim Yemets.