The Institute presents the analytical report "Ukrainian Conflict and the Future of Global and European Security" at the VIII Europe-Ukraine Forum

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On 15-17 February 2015 the VIII Europe-Ukraine Forum was held in Lodz, Poland. The leading policy-makers and experts in the fields of international affairs, security studies, economics, and politics from Ukraine, the EU and Russia participated in the Forum. They covered a wide range of issues, namely the prospects of further reforms in Ukraine, European integration and relations with Russia. However, this time the participants of the Forum highlighted the issue of the conflict in Ukraine and the prospects of security in Europe.

War and peace in Europe were discussed during the following panels: "Ukraine in the Global Puzzle. Prospects for the European security system" and "Ukraine and its Neighbours – New Dimensions of Economic Cooperation". The moderator of these panels was the Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies "New Ukraine" Andrii Iermolaiev.

The Institute for Strategic Studies "New Ukraine" presented a series of special reports:

-                     Ukrainian Conflict and the Future of Global and European Security;

-                     The south of Ukraine: current challenges and strategic priorities of development;

-                     “Peace Plan: Reboot”.

The Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies ’New Ukraine’ Andrii Iermolaiev discussed five scenarios of the further developments in Ukraine. According to the first scenario, the current conflict could turn into an open war. However, this scenario looks unlikely, because the open war would harm Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. “In order to avoid this scenario, it should be discussed anyway,” Mr Iermolaiev stressed.The second scenario could be the division of Ukraine, with the silent consent of the West, like it happened during the annexation of Crimea. The third scenario could be granting autonomy to the eastern regions of Ukraine, according to the rules of separatists. The fourth scenario could be granting the autonomy to the eastern regions, according to the rules of the authorities in Kyiv. The fifth scenario, which could come true only in the case of complete demilitarization of all parties of the conflict, could be modernization of Ukraine, including the reform of local self-government.Mr Iermolaiev added that the early parliamentary elections, announced by President Petro Poroshenko, would not happen, if the armed conflict goes on. However, it is necessary to get ready to the elections, bearing in mind the option of calming the situation down. “The peaceful parliamentary coalition should be established in the national parliament, in the current one and in one to be elected”, he stressed.

Europe-Ukraine Forum is one of the most significant conferences organized by the Institute for Eastern Studies (Poland). It is a platform for dialogue between policy-makers, businessmen, the representatives of local government, international organizations, and experts from the EU, USA, Ukraine, and Russia. In 2015, the representatives of the European Commission, the members of the European Parliament, Foreign Ministers, Ministers of Economy, and the representatives of international organizations held meetings during the Forum.

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