Future of Donbas Conflict Areas after Minsk Agreements-II: Range of Options

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The February 12, 2015 Minsk Agreements on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine are recognized by all parties of the conflict and  stakeholders of global politics. These agreements are taken for granted, which allows to decide on the further steps towards achieving peace, overcoming the threat of a large-scale war in Europe, implement measures on integration and revival of the territories.

The first Minsk agreements (September 2014) were perceived by all as temporary. Peace did not last long, resumption of hostilities was only a matter of time. But the February 12, 2015 Minsk Agreements have a higher level of commitment, as the situation has changed and there is reason to hope that there will be no large-scale hostilities. However, the probability of their resumption exists, and it can be estimated at either 50% or 90%. But there is none of the univocacy that was present after the Minsk-I, the range of options is much more diverse.

At the same time, adherence to the Minsk Agreements-II is the only way towards conflict deescalation.

 Currently, Ukraine is in need of not only a political, but also a nation-wide dialogue on the fate of the conflict areas. It is important to know what phase we are in; make a consolidated prediction on the possible ways the situation may develop; determine which scenario is favorable for Ukraine; what is required for the implementation of any of the given scenarios.